Our Tri-Valley (Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton & San Ramon) Real Estate market gives some mixed signals this past month.
As you’ll see below, the graph would suggest home prices have dipped by 10% from September to October which certainly comes as a shock. However, upon further investigation this past month appears to be a bit of an anomaly in that sales have been skewed by more lower priced sales and less higher end sales, with the median being the mid point.
Looking more closely at the sales we are happy to confirm that prices have not dropped by 10% overall.
Let’s take a look at another indicator, the number of homes under contract.
As you’ll see below, the number of Tri-Valley homes going under contract each month remains strong reflecting continued buyer demand. In fact, October was up over the past several months and was up 26% over the same time last year. Activity overall this year has been much stronger than last year. It is always good news for sellers when there are more buyers buying homes.
So just how many homes are there for sale versus those selling?
Our graph below illustrates current market conditions based Tri-Valley Supply and Demand .
Firstly, the red columns showing the number of single family homes for sale in the Tri-Valley (Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton & San Ramon) each month which peaked in June and has been following the typical seasonal decline as we head towards the holidays (can’t believe Thanksgiving is here next week).
Perhaps more importantly from a market conditions perspective is that the number of homes for sale versus a year ago is down 15%, this is good news for sellers as this means less competition overall. Not so good for buyers, as this presents less selection.
Also good news for sellers are the number of properties selling each month (closed escrow) as represented by the green bars on the graph. The number of properties selling sold each month remains relatively constant and homes most definitely sell every month. The myth that if you haven’t sold your home over the summer you’ve missed the market certainly isn’t supported by the numbers below.
So is the market still improving, or are there a glut of homes available for sale today? Let’s look at the last graph further below.
Another indicator of market conditions is the months of supply of housing inventory. This is a measure of how long it would take for all the homes on the market to sell if no new homes came on the market, based the number of homes for sale and the number that sold in the given month.
As you can see from this graph, the inventory for single family homes in the Tri-Valley has been steadily declining overall over the past 12 months, in fact inventory is down 37% compared with a year ago. The national average is still currently over 10 months of supply, we are at just a little over 2 months. A healthy real estate market would be considered “in balance” if the inventory is in the range of 4-6 months, and we are well below that.
As you can see from all the main indicators, our local housing market is in good shape and we are very fortunate to live and work where we do.
