Tri-Valley Home Sales Continue to Improve Through August

Good news for homeowners, at least in the Tr-Valley (Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton & San Ramon).

The median price for single family homes continues to rise for the fifth straight month. While this doesn’t necessarily mean all homes are going up in value, this is a good indicator that our market locally is stabilizing overall.

This is certainly a positive step forward over past years where the median price was very much on the decline as it still is in many other parts of the state and country. With that said, median price is only one indicator of market conditions. Let’s take a look at another indicator, the number of homes under contract.

As you’ll see below, the number of Tri-Valley homes going under contract each month has been steadily increasing reflecting stronger buyer activity. In fact, August was up 28% over the same time last year and activity overall this year has been much stronger than last year. It is always good news for sellers when there are more buyers buying homes.

So just how many homes are there for sale versus those selling?

Our Tri-Valley Supply and Demand graph reveals several insights on current market conditions.

Firstly, the red columns showing the number of single family homes for sale in the Tri-Valley (Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton & San Ramon) each month which peaked in June and now has started the seasonal decline as we head towards the holidays (can’t believe I’m already saying Holidays!).

Perhaps more importantly from a market conditions perspective is that the number of homes for sale versus a year a go is down 7%, this is good news for sellers as this means slightly less competition overall compared with a year ago.

What is very encouraging on several fronts is the number of properties selling each month (closed escrow) as represented by the green bars on the graph. Sold properties are up 24% over a year ago. The number of properties selling each month is remaining relatively constant and that homes most definitely sell every month. The myth that if you haven’t sold your home over the summer you’ve missed the market certainly isn’t supported by the numbers below. In fact, this time of the year can be one of the best times for sellers as there are less competing homes on the market over the few months.

So is the market improving, or are there a glut of homes available for sale today? Let’s look at the last graph further below.

Another indicator of market conditions is the months of supply of housing inventory. This is a measure of how long it would take for all the homes on the market to sell if no new homes came on the market, based the number of homes for sale and the number that sold in the given month.

As you can see from this graph, the inventory for single family homes in the Tri-Valley has been steadily declining over the past 12 months, in fact inventory is down 34% compared with a year ago. The national average is currently over 10 months of supply, we are at just a little over 2 months. A healthy real estate market would be considered “in balance” if the inventory is in the range of 4-6 months, and we are well below that.

As you can see from all the main indicators, our local housing market is in good shape and we are very fortunate to live and work where we do.

But what about the distress properties, how big a part are they of our local market?

Foreclosures and Short Sales in Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton and San Ramon (Single Family Homes)

Here is a break down by city of the number of homes currently for sale or in contract. This is further broken down by number that are bank owned (REO – Real Estate Owned by Bank) or short sales. As you can see in the second last column of the table below, Distress Properties account for approximately 28% of Tri-Valley homes that are currently for sale. Of those in contract, over half are distress properties (56%). The graph further below provides us with a good visual.

City	Active	Pending	#REO Active	#REO Pending	%Active REO	#Short Sales Active	#Short Sales Pending	% Active Short Sales	% Active Distressed	% Pending Distressed
Dublin	61	91	7	5	11.5%	12	46	19.7%	31.1%	56.0%
Livermore	215	203	25	23	11.6%	62	108	28.8%	40.5%	64.5%
Pleasanton	194	104	11	3	5.7%	23	39	11.9%	17.5%	40.4%
San Ramon	175	119	10	4	5.7%	30	63	17.1%	22.9%	56.3%
Total	645	517	53	35	8.2%	127	256	19.7%	27.9%	56.3%